We can all see the problem.
We can’t all see the solution.
It is an old saying that a week is a long time in politics but for the UK, much has changed in just two weeks. In September, there were a number of reports talking of how the economy was beginning to recover and that 2021 would see a recovery process which would lie between 4%-8.4% depending on when and if a vaccine appeared.
Those reports do seem like a million miles away today as the mood has completed changed. It does seem likely that we will see a longer exit from the Pandemic and the question that almost every business is being asked is: How will you adapt? How will you create and ultimately reinvent yourselves and things around you?
This applies to both talent and to companies in almost equal measure. It was argued that all the jobs lost this year would be regained in 2021. Now, the forecast is for 500,000 lost jobs and that unemployment will reach around 8%, a level not seen since the early 1990s.
The problem with figures and stats is that they only ever tell part of the story. We also know that City centres are truly struggling so the deeper question is whether we see a migration of talent from Cities to rural areas? If so, what are the long term ramifications of this?
Most experts also agree that offices will return but that it will be an 18-24month journey which naturally means that most city centre operations will be running on 30-50% less business, how does this then translate? Air travel and business travel is not expected to return until 2024 which naturally means many of the International business hotels face a tough few years. Most agree that recovery will not be achieved till 2023, so just how many are going to struggle and fall through the cracks over the next two years?
People are resilient. This has been proven time and again through history. People just adapt and reinvent themselves. They find new crafts, new skills, and new jobs. New opportunities emerge and life changes. Business and people will reinvent themselves, many for the better.
This is why we founded “Reinvention”; to work with those who want to work this through. We can all see the problem; we just can’t all see the solution. It will mean change; change in models, change in services, change in outlook, change in careers but as another saying goes “change and uncertainity have become the new constants”.