One of the on-going discussions is just how countries will become stricter over their national boundaries and that countries will once again begin to rely on their local solutions rather than a global supply chain. This is following news reports today that both the French and the Germans are looking to repatriate the critical supply chain.
It is understandable and many will follow suit. There are also reports today that both airfares may well double post-crisis and maybe of more importance that the Q2UK economic figures will see a 33% decline in the economy and unemployment rising to 10% in Q3.
For the Hospitality sector, this bad news as clearly there will be less spend and for the large companies, this does present a major challenge. However, does this also mean that there will a re-focus on suppliers and business which are local?
In a further report today, it was also noted that there has been a rise in numbers using local shops over supermarkets and that as the social distancing education has kicked in so, for many, this been translated into using local over national.
It does all raise a series of interesting questions to be answered in the coming months. If Unemployment does rise to 10% from 3.4% it is presently, this will naturally impact on spending in cafes and mid-market restaurants too. It is already expected that the hotel market will not see a return to real business until Q4 and not until Q2 2021 for a sign of normal trading. There will supply of retail space and this may see rents fall and a new High Street re-emerge?
Given all the facts, it is likely that many countries will want to buy increasingly from their own sources as there has grown a distrust in the International supply chain. If the economy does fall in a serious way, this does normally lead to innovation, change and a greater focus on local. It, therefore, would seem logical to focus on local horizons for business.